Menu

Shun Xin Agriculture (000860): The net interest rate around the “Five-Year” strategy continues to rise

Comments Off on Shun Xin Agriculture (000860): The net interest rate around the “Five-Year” strategy continues to rise

Shun Xin Agriculture (000860): The net interest rate around the “Five-Year” strategy continues to rise
Event: The company released its 2019 Interim Report and achieved revenue of 84 in 19H1.1.6 billion (+16.36%), net profit attributable to mother 6.4.8 billion (+34.64%), deducting non-net profit 6.4.9 billion (+34.35%).19Q2 achieved revenue of 36.5.1 billion (+11.99%), net profit attributable to mother 2.1.9 billion (+89.94%), deducting non-net profit 2.200 million (+90.2%). Investment highlights Niu Er has steadily expanded. The parent company’s prepayment / baijiu revenue is at the highest level in half a year, and it has steadily moved forward around the “Five-Year” deployment: 19H1 achieved revenue 84.1.6 billion (+16.36%), with revenue of 36 in 19Q2.5.1 billion (+11.99%).In terms of business, liquor revenue was 66.6 trillion, the same increase of 15.3%, solid growth.We estimate that the Q2 liquor business will maintain an increase in number, and the growth rate will decrease slightly from the previous quarter.Parent company’s advance payment 38 at the end of the period.4.6 billion, down 40 from 19Q1.8.6 billion fell 5.9%, but still at a high level; 19H1 parent company’s advance receipt / liquor business income index is 57.8%, the highest level in the first half of history.Taking into account that the turnover rate of most regions in the expansion period of foreign ports has increased, the level of advance receipts has remained high, demonstrating the downstream bargaining power and company’s power.Initially, the company’s liquor is closely centered on the “Fourth Five-Year” strategic deployment. At the end of the fourth and fifth years, the company “deeply distributed, adjusted the structure, and modeled the tree.” 1) The transformation from national expansion to the deep development of the market;The single product has grown from a stand-alone product to a star-shaped product; 3) The transformation from deep ploughing of Beijing to the simultaneous creation of a foreign model market.We judge that at the same time of nationalization, the company will deepen its advantageous market layout and deepen its market penetration. At the same time, it will increase the price of 40-50 yuan with large single product layouts. It will also build a number of 5 billion to 1 billion model market.The “Four Five” strategy is expected to be completed.Revenue from pork business, 19H1 slaughter business14.3 trillion, the same increase of 16.2%, under the swine fever epidemic in Africa, the first half of the year was restricted by the inter-provincial hog transfer policy, and the profitability of the company’s pork sector is expected to be under pressure.In the real estate business, the revenue of the real estate subsidiary was 2 million, which increased by 1 every year.Looking at the advance receipts in the consolidated statement, the advance receipt of the real estate sector is approximately 1.1 billion. The Beijing Yihe Tiantuo Project (Phase 1), Hainan Fuhai Homeland Project and Baotou Wangchaoyuan Project are on sale. It is estimated that Beijing and Hainan DehuaSpeed forward.In terms of regions, in 19H1, the port’s revenue growth rate was 37.4/2.3%, mainly because the slaughtering business was affected by the inter-provincial embargo policy on pigs, and more revenue was confirmed in the local business. Decreased consumption tax rate + growth and tax reduction helped higher profitability.We estimate that the net profit margin of the liquor business increased by 11 in the first half of the year.9%, 1 increase in 18H1 a year.6pct, continuing the trend of rising net profit. Initially, the tax rate adjustment is the main increase in the first half of the year.1) Consumption 西安耍耍网 tax rate.19H1 Liquor Consumption Tax is priced at 10.4% a year -1.7pct, mainly due to the sale of some finished taxed wines in the first half of the year; 2) Replacement.Since April, the expected growth rate has been reduced to 0.8-1.1% increase in net interest rate; 3) Gross profit rate and fee rate both decreased.19H1 liquor gross profit rate 44.59% per year -3.07pct, mainly due to the company’s liquor business market development and promotion costs in the second half of 2017 changed to bear by the dealer, giving the dealer product sales discount.Correspondingly, the scale benefits of the expansion of foreign ports drove the liquor declaration / transportation rate down 2 respectively.17pct / 0.3pct to 7% / 3.1% (assuming that the sales expenses in the parent company’s statement are mainly directed to liquor).There is 杭州桑拿网 also 0 under the scale effect of management expenses.76pct dropped. Earnings forecast and investment rating: We expect the company’s revenue for 2019-2021 to be US $ 148/170/19 billion, with a growth rate of 23/15/12%; net profit attributable to the mother is US $ 12/14 / 1.6 billion, with a growth rate of59/20/13%; corresponding EPS is 1.6/1.9/2.2 yuan.The corresponding PEs are currently 34/28/25.Considering the company’s nationalization, the market share + net interest rate has entered a double-rising channel. As a leading low-end liquor company, the company’s liquor business is expected to improve space and maintain a “buy” rating. Risk Warning: Low-end wine competition intensifies risks, and economic consumption demand is tired